It's going to be close.  I think it's too early to tell-ask me again in July.

RNC Chairman Statement on Pelosi Comments Calling President Bush ‘Incompetent’

Washington, DC— RNC Chairman Ed Gillespie issued the following statement today in response to House Minority Leader Nancy Pelosi’s statement that “Bush is an incompetent leader,” that the President has “no judgment, no experience and no knowledge” and that he has the deaths of thousands of soldiers “on his shoulders.” (Associated Press, 5/20/2004, House Democratic Leader Pelosi Calls Bush ‘Incompetent’)

"To angry Democrats like Nancy Pelosi and Ted Kennedy, terrorists and militia aren't responsible for the deaths of U.S. soldiers, their commander-in-chief is. And our servicemen and women, in putting torture chambers 'under U.S. management,' are no different than a regime that systematically tortured, raped and killed its own people. The San Francisco/Boston Democrats led by John Kerry have now adopted Blame America First as their official policy. "